The Decision-Making Matrix
Over the past two years, we have been thrust into constant risk assessment and priority-based decision-making. Decision-making strategies meant for big business moves were suddenly applied to a local hockey game, an anniversary dinner, or a vaccination.
COVID risk assessments will differ based on your age group, vaccine status, and the people you interact with (some of whom may be immune-compromised). My priorities will differ from yours. Undoubtedly.
The risk assessments have evolved as COVID and vaccine development have evolved. I turned 60 during a pandemic that had taken particular aim at my age group, my husband’s even more so. Into that realization, we strode… aware that we would minimize our contacts, wear a mask, wash our hands and all that jazz. It made sense for us. As each vaccination became available, we were first in line. We still wear a mask in some scenarios.
As travel began to open up, a long-held dream to travel to Tuscany began to peek out from under the trash heap of COVID. I wanted to go to celebrate my 60th birthday.
But…SHOULD I?
Now, I come as a package deal, and my husband is the most cautious being on the planet. (Sometimes annoyingly so, to be honest!) His own risk and priorities needed to be considered too.
The situation had gone around so often that we were aware that it could change again.
There were lots of reasons NOT to go. COVID had not disappeared. COVID did sometimes break through vaccines. COVID is of particular risk to those with heart disease, and the moustache guy suffered a heart attack 20 years ago. It would cost money, and I’m cheap. (Scottish, don’t ya know?)
So why go?
We are growing older. If I was 30, I might delay a little longer to feel more confident, but 30 has been doubled, and my husband is getting to the point where travel insurance will be a considerable part of trip costs.
We both enjoy hiking on our travels, but admittedly the joints are beginning to protest. We feel compelled to do as much as we can as long as we can do it! (And time is passing quicker these days!)
We are fully vaccinated, travelling to a well-vaccinated location. Why does “fully vaccinated” matter? The most concerning things about COVID are landing in ICU or dying, right? There are a LOT of COVID19 statistics on the Alberta Government COVID statistics page. Still, I focused on ICU admittance and death (per 100,000) for the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated. (per 100,000 gives us a truer picture. Percentages for ICU and death can be misleading. Remember, percentages among completely unvaccinated come from about 9% of the 12+ population. The percentages for fully vaccinated come from about 87% of the 12+ with at least 2 doses)
Let’s have a look.
ICU hospitalizations
COVID-19 ICU admission, count and rate (per 100,000 population), in the past 120 days in Alberta by vaccine status.
| Age group | 3 doses & admitted in ICU (rate per 100K) | 2 doses & admitted in ICU (rate per 100K) | Unvaccinated & admitted in ICU (rate per 100K) |
| Under 5 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.54 |
| 5-11 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.33 |
| 12-29 years | 0.88 | 3.62 | 7.68 |
| 30-39 years | 0.84 | 4.26 | 15.07 |
| 40-49 years | 5.38 | 11.96 | 35.42 |
| 50-59 years | 10.71 | 24.55 | 93.39 |
| 60-69 years | 21.43 | 48.57 | 361.04 |
| 70-79 years | 39.46 | 72.16 | 619.93 |
| 80+ years | 26.62 | 70.14 | 97.24 |
Deaths
COVID-19 deaths, count and rate (per 100,000 population), in the past 120 days in Alberta by vaccine status.
| Age group | 3 doses & died (rate per 100K) | 2 doses & died (rate per 100K) | Unvaccinated & died (rate per 100K) |
| Under 5 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 5-11 years | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 12-29 years | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| 30-39 years | 0.00 | 1.14 | 3.01 |
| 40-49 years | 0.38 | 0.75 | 12.32 |
| 50-59 years | 3.35 | 5.87 | 40.86 |
| 60-69 years | 12.68 | 38.68 | 165.05 |
| 70-79 years | 49.09 | 109.48 | 782.29 |
| 80+ years | 289.12 | 365.71 | 996.66 |
Remember our age group? 60 – 69. This part of the decision-making matrix was pretty straightforward. Get vaccinated, especially if you want to travel.
We are travelling from Alberta, Canada, with an 87% 2-dose vaccination rate and travelling to Italy. How protected are Italians? “So far, approximately 48.6 million people in Italy have received two doses, corresponding to roughly 90.1 percent of the total population over 12 years of age. Additionally, three out of four Italians have also received the booster shot.” (Statistica.com June 2022) Seems like Italians are pretty COVID conscious, not surprising given their start to a pre-vaccine pandemic.
https://pathtothepasture.com/2020/11/07/our-greatest-protest-for-healthcare/
Alberta had lifted its mask mandate, but airports and airlines still had theirs. Italy, at the time we were planning, still had a mask mandate in public places. Overall, I felt just as safe in an airport, an airplane, in Italy, as I was at home. That said, it’s HARD to overcome 2 years of constant vigilance, isn’t it? Still, we kinda sorta started planning.
The first step was to book vacation rentals, but only those with free cancellation up to 24 hours ahead. More were available than I expected; I imagine this comes from their own adjustment to the pandemic reality. Having free cancellation certainly gave them an edge in my case.
Next, medical insurance should we become ill, and new to me…COVID pandemic insurance. A medical policy is already pricier than it used to be. We paid over a thousand bucks just for insurance, but better safe than sorry!
The rental car was also chosen for their cancellation policy. (We will get into whether this agency was the right choice later!)
During our planning, the COVID19 test requirement was removed for vaccinated travellers, with only random travellers selected. That was one less hurdle!
My son-in-law donated (paid for renovation help) Westjet miles covering one direction, so the trip would be more affordable! In addition, I was reassured by HEPA filters in Westjet’s 787 Dreamliner. We booked the flights, and yes, these were flights that could be changed.
There were extra requirements to travel in this new world. Beyond checking our passport expiry, we had to set up ArriveCan accounts and download the app. We printed our new and improved vaccine certificates with “Canada” clearly displayed. Italy also required a Passenger Locator Form, and those details were entered. We bought both N95 masks (Canadian requirement) and FFP2 (European requirement) just in case one would not accept the other.
Risk Assessment? Fairly low.
Preparedness, just in case? Yes.
Priority? We discovered a love of travel a while ago and have really been missing it. We would like to cover a long list of destinations before we can’t. This Tuscany dream has been in the lens for decades. COVID appears to be settling in, in one form or another, for a while. We are getting older. Yes, this trip was a priority.
Decision made. Off we went and have returned with no regrets at all. Was it uncomfortable to wear masks like those for 8 or 9 hours? Yes. Would I do it again? Yes!
Buon viaggio!
I’ll be taking you along on our journey in future posts. I hope that YOUR “decision-making matrix” allows you to remain as safe as you need to be while discovering those things you may still be able to do. What does that look like for you?
Path to Pasture 